Where do new entrants arrive from?

Explore the background of new entrants to understand where they arrive from

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Introduction

Understanding where new entrants arrive from can inform industry leaders' policy development in attracting new talent, and gateway programmes into their sectors.

For this analysis, and all of the sources of new entrants section, we take all new entrants into the sectors we follow and categorise them based on where they are most likely to be targeted on a policy level. To do this we look at what each new entrant was doing in the year prior to entering their new sector. The three main sources we investigate are training or study enrolments found through Ministry of Education records, work history found in IRD tax records, or visa statuses of Overseas Spells.

Out of the groups we establish we find that career changers, who are new entrants with at least one year's experience in other sectors, are the largest source of new entrants across all of the sectors we follow.

Sources of new entrants by industry

While career changers are the largest source of new talent entering the industries we follow, they make a smaller contribution to the agricultural industry in comparison to construction or manufacturing. In their place, secondary school leavers and immigrants make up proportionately larger sources of new talent in the agricultural industry.

To investigate the sectors within each of the industries below, right-click each industry bar and select 'drill down'.

Sources of new entrants each year

Over time, there has been a gradual increase in the proportionate size of immigrants sourced as new entrants. This is more evident within the dairy farming sector. We also note that Ministry of Education records are not complete for the year 2016 and 2017, explaining the decrease in secondary school leavers and tertiary gradutes in 2017.

By switching to counts (% ⇄ #) we can see how economic conditions reflect on the number of new entrants entering each year. Across all sectors the effect of the global financial crisis saw a decrease in the number of new entrants between 2008 and 2009. The carpentry sector showed one of the greatest declines in new entrants as a result of the crisis, however thereafter had a gradual but steady return to growth. On the other hand, the dairy farming sector was less affected by the crisis in terms of new entrant intake, likely because Fonterra increased dividend payouts to bolster low milk prices in 2008. However, the 2014 drop in payout can be seen to be reflected in the number of new entrants into dairy farming in 2015.

Sources of new entrants across income bands

No occupational information is available from IRD records, so as an alternative we use the magnitude of income as a loose proxy to what type of roles new entrants are entering into. To do this we split the entire workforce into quartiles based on their average monthly income across working months. New entrants are then placed into these quartiles to see how their earnings fit in with the rest of the workforce.

We find that career changers typically transition into higher income roles, whereas secondary school leavers, tertiary graduates and beneficiaries more often enter into lower income roles.

By selecting the Existing Worforce checkbox in the top-right corner of the dashboard below, we see new entrants make up 28% of all low income roles, and a smaller share of higher income positions.

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