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Source of new entrants, yearly

Over time, there has been a gradual increase in the proportionate size of immigrants sourced as new entrants. This is more evident within the dairy farming sector. We also note that Ministry of Education records are not complete for the year 2016 and 2017, explaining the decrease in secondary school leavers and tertiary gradutes in 2017.

By switching to counts (% ⇄ #) we can see how economic conditions reflect on the number of new entrants entering each year. Across all sectors the effect of the global financial crisis saw a decrease in the number of new entrants between 2008 and 2009. The carpentry sector showed one of the greatest declines in new entrants as a result of the crisis, however thereafter had a gradual but steady return to growth. On the other hand, the dairy farming sector was less affected by the crisis in terms of new entrant intake, likely because Fonterra increased dividend payouts to bolster low milk prices in 2008. However, the 2014 drop in payout can be seen to be reflected in the number of new entrants into dairy farming in 2015.

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Methodology

A new entrant is classified as an individual who first starts working (earning income in IRD records) within a given sector (defined through employer ANZSIC 2006 codes). We take new entrants in the sectors we follow between the years of 2007 and 2017, and categorise them into source groups using the following hierarchy:

  1. Secondary leaver (enrolled within one year of starting work)
  2. Tertiary graduate (enrolled within one year of starting work)
  3. Career changer (at least one year of work experience within any other sector)
  4. Immigrant (first arrived in New Zealand within one year)
  5. Beneficiary (history of beneficiary income)
  6. Returning kiwi (return date to New Zealand within one year)
  7. Others and unknowns

Such that a new entrant recently enrolled in tertiary education with more than one year of work experience is classified as a tertiary graduate as opposed to a career changer.

farm_road

Where do food and fibre sectors source their talent?

Secondary school students are looking like they might not the solution to the supply shortage in food and fibre workers.

Career changers New entrants Source of new talent Source of new entrants